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Friday, August 28, 2009

Wyoming, Bernanke offered an optimistic assessment


With little economic data released at the start of the week, the focus in the currency market has shifted to Central Bank rhetoric, with the key highlights attributed to commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet. Speaking from the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke offered an optimistic assessment over the economic outlook saying, “economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the US and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near-term appear good”. His upbeat outlook spurred on gains in the equity and commodities markets, while pushing the dollar slightly lower against the majors.Meanwhile, ECB President Trichet sounded a cautious tone over the economic outlook for the Eurozone, suggesting that interest rates will likely remain low for a protracted length of time. He said, “We see signs confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall”, yet it “does not mean at all that we do not have a very bump road ahead of us”. Nonetheless, the major currency pairs continue to drift in a lackluster manner as the summer doldrums have confined foreign exchange to rangebound trading. We remain biased for further dollar weakness in the coming weeks as economic data from the US continue to gradually improve and support the equity markets. FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Pound's rebound at 1.6150 low on Thursday has extended to 1.6380 European session high although the pair has pulled back somewhat, and trades around 1.6350 at the moment of writing.According to Carol Harmer, technical analyst at Charmer Charts, once above 1.6320, the odds increase for a rally to 1.6450/80: "Now this is good resistance at 1.6305/20 and today you so not wish to see the market break above here. If it does then the downside pressure will be taken off, and bulls will be in with a good chance if taking this higher to 1.6450/80 to 1.6510."FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - United Kingdom's second quarter's Gross Domestic Product has been revised to a 0.7% decline, and a 5.6% year on year contraction, the largest annual contraction ever seen, from previous estimations of a 0.8% quarterly decline and 5.6% drop year on year.The Pound has eased from session highs at 1.6328 to 1.6290 immediately after GDP figures were released, although the pair has returned to levels above 1.6300 afterwards.Initial resistance level lies around 1.6325 area, and above here, 1.6400 and 1.6505. On the downside, next support level could be at 1.6250/60 session low, and below here, 1.6150 (Aug 27 low) and 1.6120.

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